FOREX versus Futures

The origins of today's futures market lies in the agriculture markets of the 19th century. At that time, farmers began selling contracts to deliver agricultural products at a later date. This was done to anticipate market needs and stabilize supply and demand during off seasons.

The current futures market includes much more than agricultural products. It is a worldwide market for all sorts of commodities including manufactured goods, agricultural products, and financial instruments such as currencies and treasury bonds. A futures contract states what price will be paid for a product at a specified delivery date.

When the futures market is played by speculators, the actual goods are not important and there is no expectation of delivery. Rather, it is the futures contract itself that is traded as the value of that contract changes daily according the market value of the commodity.

In every futures contract there is a buyer and a seller. The seller takes the short position and the buyer takes the long position. The futures contract specifies a buying price, a quantity and a delivery date. For example: A farmer agrees to deliver 1000 bushels of wheat to a baker at a price of $5.00 a bushel. If the daily price of wheat futures falls to $4.00 a bushel, the farmer's account is credited with $1000 ($5.00 - $4.00 X 1000 bushels) and the baker's account is debited by the same amount. Futures accounts are settled every day.

At the end of the contract period, the contract is settled. If the price of wheat futures is still at $4.00 the farmer will have made $1000 on the futures contract and the baker will have lost the same amount. However, the baker now buys wheat on the open market at $4.00 a bushel - $1000 less than the original contract, so the amount he lost on the futures contract is made up by the cheaper cost of wheat. Similarly, the farmer must sell his wheat on the open market for $4.00 a bushel, less than what he anticipated when entering the futures contract, but the profit generated by the futures contract makes up the difference.

The baker, however, is still in effect buying the wheat at $5.00 a bushel, and if he hadn't entered into a futures contract he would have been able to buy wheat at $4.00 a bushel. He protected himself against rising prices but he loses if the market price drops.

Speculators hope to profit by the daily fluctuations in the futures market by buying long (from the buyer) if they expect prices to rise or by buying short (from the seller) if they expect prices to fall.

FOREX

The foreign exchange market (FOREX) has several advantages over the futures market. FOREX is a more liquid market – as the largest financial market in the world it dwarfs the futures market in daily exchanges. This means that stop orders can be executed more easily and with less slippage in the FOREX.

The FOREX is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Most futures exchanges are open 7 hours a day. This makes FOREX more liquid and allows FOREX traders to take advantage of trading opportunities as they arise rather than waiting for the market to open.

FOREX transactions are commission-free. Brokers earn money by setting a spread – the difference between what a currency can be bought at and what it can be sold at. In contrast, traders must pay a commission or brokerage fee for each futures transaction they enter into.

Because of the high volume of trading FOREX transactions are almost instantly executed. This minimizes slippage and increases price certainty. Brokers in the futures market often quote prices reflecting the last trade – not necessarily the price of your transaction.

The FOREX is less risky than the futures market because of built-in safeguards in the trading system. Debits in futures are always a possiblility because of market gap and slippage.

Fundamental analysis

FOREX traders almost always rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategies. There are two basic types of FOREX analysis – technical and fundamental. This article will look at fundamental analysis and how it used in FOREX trading.

FOREX fundamental analysis refers to political and economic conditions that may affect currency prices. FOREX traders using fundamental analysis rely on news reports to gather information about unemployment rates, economic policies, inflation, and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis is often used to get an overview of currency movements and to provide a broad picture of economic conditions affecting a specific currency. Most traders rely on technical analysis for plotting entry and exit points into the market and supplement their findings with fundamental analysis.

Currency prices on the FOREX are affected by the forces of supply and demand, which in turn are affected by economic conditions. The two most important economic factors affecting supply and demand are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The strength of the economy is affected by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), foreign investment and trade balance.

Indicators

Various indicators are released by government and academic sources. They are reliable measures of economic health and are followed by all sectors of the investment market. Indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but some are released weekly.

Two of the most important fundamental indicators are interest rates and international trade. Other indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Durable Goods Orders, Producer Price Index (PPI), Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), and retail sales.

Interest Rates - can have either a strengthening or weakening effect on a particular currency. On the one hand, high interest rates attract foreign investment which will strengthen the local currency. On the other hand, stock market investors often react to interest rate increases by selling off their holdings in the belief that higher borrowing costs will adversely affect many companies. Stock investors may sell off their holdings causing a downturn in the stock market and the national economy.

Determining which of these two effects will predominate depends on many complex factors, but there is usually a consensus amongst economic observers of how particular interest rate changes will affect the economy and the price of a currency.

International Trade – Trade balance which shows a deficit (more imports than exports) is usually an unfavourable indicator. Deficit trade balances means that money is flowing out of the country to purchase foreign-made goods and this may have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually, however, market expectations dictate whether a deficit trade balance is unfavourable or not. If a county habitually operates with a deficit trade balance this has already been factored into the price of its currency. Trade deficits will only affect currency prices when they are more than market expectations.

Other indicators include the CPI – a measurement of the cost of living, and the PPI – a measurement of the cost of producing goods. The GDP measures the value of all goods and services within a country, while the M2 Money Supply measures the total amount of all currency.

There are 28 major indicators used in the United States. Indicators have strong effects on financial markets so FOREX traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Up-to-date information is available on many websites and many FOREX brokers supply this information as part of their trading service.

Types of FOREX orders

A trader has at his disposal different types of orders to make FOREX trades. A clear understanding of each type of order is necessary to be a successful FOREX trader.

Market Order – is an order to buy or sell at the current market price. They can be used to enter or exit a trade.

Market orders should be used with care because in fast-moving markets there may be a difference between the price seen at the time a market order is given and the actual price of the transaction. This is due to slippage – the amount the market moves in the few seconds between giving an order and having it executed. Slippage could result in a loss or gain of several pips.

Limit Order – is an order to buy or sell at a certain limit. They can be used to buy currency below the market price or sell currency above the market price. When buying, your order is executed when the market falls to your limit order price. When selling, your order is executed when the market rises to your limit order price. There is no slippage with limit orders.

Stop Order – is an order to buy above the market or to sell below the market. They are most commonly used as stop-loss orders to limit losses if the market moves contrary to what the trader expected. A stop-loss order will sell the currency if the market falls below the point set by the trader.

One Cancels the Other (OCO) – this order is used when placing a limit order and a stop-loss order at the same time. If either order is executed the other is cancelled, allowing the trader to make a transaction without monitoring the market. If the market falls, the stop-loss order will be executed, but if the market rises to the level of the limit order, the currency will be sold at a profit.

• Example OCO Transaction:

  Buy: 1 standard lot EUR/USD @ 1.3228 = $132,280
  Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
  Stop-Loss: 1.3203
  Limit: 1.3328

  This is an order to buy US dollars at 1.3328 and to sell them if they fall to 1.3203 (resulting in a loss of 25 pips or $250) or to sell them if they rise to 1.3328 (resulting in a profit of 100 pips or $1,000).

• Here's another example:

  The current bid/ask price for US dollars and Canadian dollars is

  USD/CDN 1.2152/57

  ...meaning you can buy $1 US for 1.2152 CDN or sell 1.2157 CDN for $1 US.

  If you think that the US dollar (USD) is undervalued against the Canadian dollar (CDN) you would buy USD (simultaneously selling CDN) and wait for the US dollar to rise.

  This is the transaction: Buy USD: 1 standard lot USD/CDN @ 1.2157 = $121,570 CDN
  Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
  Stop-Loss: 1.2147
  Margin: $1,000 (1%)

  You are buying US$100,000 and selling CDN$121,570. Your stop loss order will be executed if the dollar falls below 1.2147, in which case you will lose $100.

  However, USD/CDN rises to 1.2192/87. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2192 CDN or sell 1.2187 CDN for $1 US.

  Because you entered the transaction by buying US dollars (buying long), you must now sell US dollars and buy back CDN dollars to realize your profit.

  You sell US$100,000 at the current USD/CDN rate of 1.2192, and receive 121,920 CDN for which you originally paid CDN$121,570. Your profit is $350 Canadian dollars or US$287.19 (350 divided by the current exchange rate of 1.2187).